CRC Staff | October 8, 2024 |
From the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University
Glendale, AZ — As the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris intensifies, new research from the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, led by Dr. George Barna, indicates that millions of Christians are unlikely to vote.
Barna’s latest research shows that only 51% of all faith voters are likely to vote in November. That means a full 104 million faith voters are unlikely to vote this election—including 41 million born-again Christians (defined by their beliefs regarding sin and salvation, not self-identification), 32 million regular Christian church attenders, and 14 million who attend an evangelical church.
Apathy among Christian voters could be “a gamechanger” this election, according to Barna.
The research shows that this election season is marked by a significant drop in voter enthusiasm, particularly among Christian voters who have historically been key players in determining the outcome of presidential races, he said.
The results also revealed that large numbers of Christian churches have distanced themselves from the election, refusing to even encourage congregants to vote and avoiding teaching related to many of the key social issues on which the election may hinge.
“I see two huge take-aways from this blockbuster report,” said Len Munsil, President of Arizona Christian University and a former Republican nominee for Governor of Arizona. “First, that Christians could be the deciding factor in a bunch of federal and state races—and are choosing not to be. And second, that they are longing for their local church to instruct them on how to think biblically about policy and politics. They don’t want to be told how to vote, but they do want to know why they should vote, and how to view political issues from a biblical framework.
“The Bible teaches us in Proverbs 29:2 that ‘when the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; but when a wicked man rules, the people groan,'” Munsil said. “But without pastors willing to speak about the Bible’s perspective on policy issues, and without them encouraging Christians to vote, it’s hard to see how we can have the kind of godly government that would enable our people to rejoice.”
One of the most important findings of the research is the depressed voting intent of “people of faith.” The survey defined “people of faith” as either someone who described themselves as “a person of religious faith” or as someone who associated with some recognized religious faith (such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, Islam, etc.).
Based on that filter, 79% of Americans qualified as a person of faith. In total, 66% of Americans 18 or older identified as Christian, thus constituting more than four out of every five adults (83%) who view themselves as a person of faith.
Among those classified as a person of faith, only one-half (51%) indicated they are likely to vote. If the survey statistics are projected on the basis of national population estimates, based on a Census-derived U.S. voting-age population of 268 million and an estimated 212 million adults qualifying as a “person of faith,” the 49% who are not likely to vote in November represents about 104 million eligible non-voters in the “people of faith” segment.
“In 2020, the gap between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden was just seven million votes. The real story lies in the margins of victory in swing states, where an average of 60,000 votes per state determined nearly 40% of the electoral votes needed to win,” Barna emphasized. “In this context, the 32 million regular churchgoers who won’t vote in 2024 is a gamechanger.”
The research pinpointed several reasons why Christians are stepping away from the voting booth:
- 68% lack interest in politics and elections
- 57% dislike all major candidates
- 55% feel none of the candidates reflect their most important views
- 52% believe their vote will not make a difference
- 48% think the election results will be manipulated
For Barna, these statistics reflect a deeper crisis of disengagement and distrust. “A lack of confidence in the process, frustration with the choices, and a general apathy toward the political sphere have left millions of believers on the sidelines,” he explained.
Despite their resistance, the survey explored possible scenarios that might inspire non-voters to cast a ballot. However, none of the options presented, including receiving encouragement from family or friends or believing their vote could sway the results, moved even one in five of these non-voters.
Interestingly, the data shows that if their church taught that voting is a biblical responsibility, one out of six likely non-voters would reconsider. “Pastors wield tremendous influence in motivating their congregations. Even the simplest action—encouraging their members to vote—could mobilize five million more voters,” Barna noted.
The study revealed a lack of engagement from churches in the current election. Barely more than half (56%) of Christian churches have encouraged congregants to vote, and only 48% have provided written materials on biblical perspectives related to key social issues.
Barna pointed out, “It’s troubling that so many churches have distanced themselves from the election, especially given the critical issues at stake and the influence they could wield. Pastors have a unique platform to inspire action not just politically, but spiritually.”
The survey showed a disconnect between the issues that congregants want to hear about and those that are being addressed from the pulpit. While 67% of regular churchgoers reported hearing teachings on religious freedom and 63% on poverty, fewer received instruction on:
- Abortion: Only 49% recalled receiving teaching on this issue
- Crime and Law Enforcement: Addressed in just 45% of churches
- Same-Sex Marriage: Mentioned in only 42% of congregations
- Transgenderism and Gender Identity: Discussed in just 27% of churches
The least-discussed topics included the role and authority of government (34%), the Israel-Palestine conflict (33%), artificial intelligence (18%), and immigration and border security (25%).
The absence of these topics from church teachings is concerning, especially considering that the top three issues driving voting behavior among regular churchgoing Christians are the economy, immigration and border control, and crime and law and order. Barna noted, “It’s clear that many pastors are not addressing the very topics that their congregants care most about and that will ultimately influence which candidates they support.”
Barna emphasized that the potential influence of church leaders on election outcomes cannot be overstated. “Pastors often seek opportunities to have a positive influence in people’s lives and upon the culture. This research underscores that simply encouraging people to vote would not only be seen as fulfilling their biblical responsibility but would also directly impact the community by getting millions of Christians to the polls.”
The survey also found that when regular church attenders were asked if they would like their church to be more involved in the election, responses were split. While 42% preferred their church maintain its current level of engagement, the remaining half were evenly divided between wanting more or less involvement.
While many see the election as a purely political decision, Barna views it through a broader lens of biblical responsibility and cultural engagement.
“Teaching people to live a culturally engaged life based on biblical principles is not about replacing a spiritual mandate with political emphasis,” he said. “It’s about equipping believers to influence their culture in a way that honors God. That includes voting for the next president, as well as determining who will hold many other federal, state, and local offices.”
A nine-page analysis of all-new 2024 Pre-Election Research from Dr. George Barna is available in Report #1: “104 Million People of Faith—Including 32 Million Christian Regular Churchgoers—Projected to Abstain from Voting in November.” The full report is available here.
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